Modelling network travel time reliability under stochastic demand

A technique is proposed for estimating the probability distribution of total network travel time, in the light of normal day-to-day variations in the travel demand matrix over a road traffic network. A solution method is proposed, based on a single run of a standard traffic assignment model, which operates in two stages. In stage one, moments of the total travel time distribution are computed by an analytic method, based on the multivariate moments of the link flow vector. In stage two, a flexible family of density functions is fitted to these moments. It is discussed how the resulting distribution may in practice be used to characterise unreliability. Illustrative numerical tests are reported on a simple network, where the method is seen to provide a means for identifying sensitive or vulnerable links, and for examining the impact on network reliability of changes to link capacities. Computational considerations for large networks, and directions for further research, are discussed

A General Stochastic Process for Day-to-Day Dynamic Traffic Assignment: Formulation, Asymptotic Behaviour, and Stability Analysis

This paper presents a general modelling approach to day-to-day dynamic assignment to a congested network through discrete-time stochastic and deterministic process models including an explicit modelling of users’ habit as a part of route choice behaviour, through an exponential smoothing filter, and of their memory of network conditions on past days, through a moving average or an exponentially smoothing filter. An asymptotic analysis of the mean process is carried out to provide a better insight. Results of such analyses are also used for deriving conditions, about values of the system parameters, assuring that the mean process is dissipative and/or converges to some kind of attractor. Numerical small examples are also provided in order to illustrate the theoretical results obtained

Identifying road user classes based on repeated trip behaviour using Bluetooth data

© 2018 The Authors Analysing the repeated trip behaviour of travellers, including trip frequency and intrapersonal variability, can provide insights into traveller needs, flexibility and knowledge of the network, as well as inputs for models including learning and/or behaviour change. Data from emerging data sources provide new opportunities to examine repeated trip making on the road network. Point-to-point sensor data, for example from Bluetooth detectors, is collected using fixed detectors installed next to roads which can record unique identifiers of passing vehicles or travellers which can then be matched across space and time. Such data is used in this research to segment road users based on their repeated trip making behaviour, as has been done in public transportation research using smart card data to understand different categories of users. Rather than deciding on traveller segmentation based on a priori assumptions, the method provides a data driven approach to cluster together travellers who have similar trip regularity and variability between days. Measures which account for the strengths and weaknesses of point-to-point sensor data are presented for (a) spatial variability, using Sequence Alignment, and (b) time of day variability, using Model Based Clustering. The proposed method is also applied to one year of data from 23 fixed Bluetooth detectors in a town in northwest England. The data consists of almost 7.5 million trips made by over 300,000 travellers. Applying the proposed methods allows three traveller user classes to be identified: infrequent, frequent, and very frequent. Interestingly, the spatial and time of day variability characteristics of each user class are distinct and are not linearly correlated with trip frequency. The frequent travellers are observed 1–5 times per week on average and make up 57% of the trips recorded during the year. Focusing on these frequent travellers, it is shown that these can be further separated into those with high spatial and time of day variability and those with low spatial and time of day variability. Understanding the distribution of travellers and trips across these user classes, as well as the repeated trip characteristics of each user class, can inform further data collection and the development of policies targeting the needs of specific travellers

A method to assess demand growth vulnerability of travel times on road network links

Many national governments around the world have turned their recent focus to monitoring the actual reliability of their road networks. In parallel there have been major research efforts aimed at developing modelling approaches for predicting the potential vulnerability of such networks, and in forecasting the future impact of any mitigating actions. In practice-whether monitoring the past or planning for the future-a confounding factor may arise, namely the potential for systematic growth in demand over a period of years. As this growth occurs the networks will operate in a regime closer to capacity, in which they are more sensitive to any variation in flow or capacity. Such growth will be partially an explanation for trends observed in historic data, and it will have an impact in forecasting too, where we can interpret this as implying that the networks are vulnerable to demand growth. This fact is not reflected in current vulnerability methods which focus almost exclusively on vulnerability to loss in capacity. In the paper, a simple, moment-based method is developed to separate out this effect of demand growth on the distribution of travel times on a network link, the aim being to develop a simple, tractable, analytic method for medium-term planning applications. Thus the impact of demand growth on the mean, variance and skewness in travel times may be isolated. For given critical changes in these summary measures, we are thus able to identify what (location-specific) level of demand growth would cause these critical values to be exceeded, and this level is referred to as Demand Growth Reliability Vulnerability (DGRV). Computing the DGRV index for each link of a network also allows the planner to identify the most vulnerable locations, in terms of their ability to accommodate growth in demand. Numerical examples are used to illustrate the principles and computation of the DGRV measure

Asymptotic approximations of transient behaviour for day-to-day traffic models

We consider a wide class of stochastic process traffic assignment models that capture the day-to-day evolving interaction between traffic congestion and drivers’ information acquisition and choice processes. Such models provide a description of not only transient change and ‘steady’ behaviour, but also represent additional variability that occurs through probabilistic descriptions. They are therefore highly suited to modelling both the disturbance and subsequent ‘drift’ of networks that are subject to some systematic change, be that a road closure or capacity reduction, new policy measure or general change in demand patterns. In this paper we derive analytic results to probabilistically capture the nature of the transient effects following such a systematic change. This can be thought of as understanding what happens as a system moves from varying about one equilibrium state to varying about a new equilibrium state. The results capture analytically the changes over time in descriptors of the system, in terms of link flow means, variances and covariances. Formally, the analytic results hold asymptotically as approximations, as we imagine demand increasing in tandem with capacities; however, our interest is in general cases where such tandem increases do not occur, and so we provide conditions under which our approximations are likely to work well. Numerical results of applying the methods are reported on several examples. The quality of the approximations is assessed through comparisons with Monte Carlo simulations from the true underlying process . Document type: Articl

Significance of sensor location in real-time traffic state estimation

Short-term congestion caused due to traffic incidents or other road environment factors significantly reduces traffic flow capacity of a link which forms a major part of travel time delays. Accurate and reliable estimate of real-time traffic state is essential for optimizing network performance during unpredictable events. Inaccurate estimate of current traffic state produces unreliable travel-time estimations which lead to ineffective traffic management strategies during traffic incident. This study highlights the accuracy and reliability of traffic state estimate when a traffic flow prediction model is not provided with information about duration and impact of the incident on traffic flow capacity of the link. Cell Transmission Model (CTM) is used for prediction of traffic state and measurements from the sensor are combined in Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) to minimize square of error between predicted and measured traffic state. A simple link is used to highlight the difference between actual traffic state and estimated traffic state using a naive prediction model for real-time traffic state estimation. Analysis of simulation results shows that estimate of traffic state is reliable and accurate for cells upstream of the measurement sensor when incident occurred downstream of measurement sensor. Whereas when incident location is upstream of measurement sensor, the estimated traffic state for downstream cells of measurement sensor is more close to actual traffic condition

Microsimulation models incorporating both demand and supply dynamics

There has been rapid growth in interest in real-time transport strategies over the last decade, ranging from automated highway systems and responsive traffic signal control to incident management and driver information systems. The complexity of these strategies, in terms of the spatial and temporal interactions within the transport system, has led to a parallel growth in the application of traffic microsimulation models for the evaluation and design of such measures, as a remedy to the limitations faced by conventional static, macroscopic approaches. However, while this naturally addresses the immediate impacts of the measure, a difficulty that remains is the question of how the secondary impacts, specifically the effect on route and departure time choice of subsequent trips, may be handled in a consistent manner within a microsimulation framework. The paper describes a modelling approach to road network traffic, in which the emphasis is on the integrated microsimulation of individual trip-makers’ decisions and individual vehicle movements across the network. To achieve this it represents directly individual drivers’ choices and experiences as they evolve from day-to-day, combined with a detailed within-day traffic simulation model of the space–time trajectories of individual vehicles according to car-following and lane-changing rules and intersection regulations. It therefore models both day-to-day and within-day variability in both demand and supply conditions, and so, we believe, is particularly suited for the realistic modelling of real-time strategies such as those listed above. The full model specification is given, along with details of its algorithmic implementation. A number of representative numerical applications are presented, including: sensitivity studies of the impact of day-to-day variability; an application to the evaluation of alternative signal control policies; and the evaluation of the introduction of bus-only lanes in a sub-network of Leeds. Our experience demonstrates that this modelling framework is computationally feasible as a method for providing a fully internally consistent, microscopic, dynamic assignment, incorporating both within- and between-day demand and supply dynamic

Explorations, Vol. 2, No. 2

Cover: The painting reproduced on the cover is an oil on canvas entitled “Konrad Oberhuber’s Visit to Compass Harbor, Maine, ” by Michael Lewis, 1985. Lewis is Professor of Art at the University of Maine at Orono. ©Michael Lewis, 1985 Articles include: The Gulf of Maine: A Sea Beside a Sea, by Kathleen Lignell The Gulf of Maine Littoral world of promise, by Carole J. Bombard for David Sanger Marine Worms Worth Fifteen Dollars Each? by David Dean Free Trade, Not Trade War, by James A. Wilson Inner Space—The Gulf of Maine: its history and future for research, by Robert S. Steneck The Shape of Mud and Its Importance to Marine Animals, by Les Watling The Humble Herring gold-plated sardine, by David K. Stevenson Seismic Profiling: The Search for the Submerged Geological Record in the Gulf of Maine, by Daniel F. Belknap and Joseph T. Kelley Our Cover Artist: Michael Lewis In the Classroom, by Michael Brody Nobody Told the Bumblebee He Couldn\u27t Fly, by Herbert Hidu The Tie That Binds: technology and research, by Robert S. Steneck Diet Developments for the Maine Lobster, by Robert Bayer A Wet Desert: secrets of the salt marsh, by Gary M. King Maine Marshes, by George L. Jacobson Mya Arenaria: return of the clam, by Devon Phillips CES: commitment and action, by Devon Phillips EPSCoR benthic research, by Lawrence M. Mayer In the Field of Researc

Sensitivity analysis of the variable demand probit stochastic user equilibrium with multiple user classes

This paper presents a formulation of the multiple user class, variable demand, probit stochastic user equilibrium model. Sufficient conditions are stated for differentiability of the equilibrium flows of this model. This justifies the derivation of sensitivity expressions for the equilibrium flows, which are presented in a format that can be implemented in commercially available software. A numerical example verifies the sensitivity expressions, and that this formulation is applicable to large networks